BREXIT RALLY LONDON 23/6/2018

I have just been watching this Brexit rally on Youtube. There , out in front , is Gerard Batten at the head of the march shaking hands with the people and looking every inch the leader. But where is Anne Marie ?  UKIP flags flutter in the breeze behind Batten but nothing with the name of the For Britain Movement on it. It is all too familiar and getting to be a habit. Batten knows how to capitalise on this  upsurge of popular discontent. He does it well. He is not the kind of man to let the grass grow under his feet. He stands at the front – like a man who knows his place and takes it. But where is Anne Marie ?

Batten is doing everything right. He is the consummate politician. He knows all the tricks and does not miss a single one. He grabs with both hands every opportunity that presents itself and milks it for everything its worth and it is working.  He is winning people over. People are being taken in by this man. He is intelligent , competent and cynical. It is sickening to watch him feed off the anger of the ordinary people of britain. UKIP will sell them out in a heartbeat and not hesitate to call them fascists and racists when they feel it to be in their political interest.  They have done it to Anne Marie and to every decent person who ever was associated with the EDL. It is , as Anne Maire herself has said , nauseating to watch how Batten and UKIP have embraced Tommy Robinson – a man they were more than happy to condemn as a racist and fascist untill they saw which way the wind was blowing.

Gerard Batten is a real problem for Anne Marie Waters and her For Britain Movement. People who might have been expected to join For Britain are now looking to Batten for leadership. Every time I go on Youtube or social media I hear more and more people say that Batten is the man. He , they believe , is the only one speaking out bravely  against Islam and the mainstream. People are gullible and Batten knows how to capitalise on their gullibility. It is a sad fact that people , ordinary people , are often easily taken in. The history and ongoing success and popularity of the Labour Party is living proof of that. And for some reason or other people seems to like Batten.

Batten is intelligent but he is by no means exceptional. He is clever but behind it all he is a political lightweight. He would never have made it to the top in any of the mainstream parties. He is a big fish in a little pond. Personally I don’t rate him at all. But in the land of the blind , not to mention the stupid , Batten is king. Anne Marie seems to be concentrating her attention on building up the branches which is the right thing to do and she seems to be doing it very well but she is letting others take the initiative and often in a very public way as we all saw in Lewisham East and as we saw today. Anne Marie is very effective when she goes on the attack and she needs to meet the challange that Batten presents head on.

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GERARD BATTEN’S NEW MEN

Three prominent Youtubers , Sargon of Akkad , Paul Joseph Watson and Count Dankula have very publicly joined UKIP. Between them they have a nominal 2,300,000 followers however when you factor in everything the actual number is probably closer to 1 million which is still a substantial figure. This means that appx. 1 million people will hear a constant flow of positive things about UKIP and some level of negative things about the  For Britain Movement particularly in reference to splitting the vote.

Gerard Batten , an intelligent and practical man has , it seems , chosen not to look this gift horse in the mouth. He will be aware of course that this could backfire on him and his party – the three Youtubers in question all have quite a caustic if not sarcastic tone which is not to the taste of everyone. You either love these guy or hate them , there really is no middle ground here. While this influx of prominent Youtubers into UKIP is not a disaster for the fledgling For Britain Movement it is not something that Anne Marie will be dancing in the street about………..unless of course  it all starts going pear-shaped which it may well do. The fact that Batten was appointed interim leader of UKIP has not helped Anne Marie. If even half of the anecdotal evidence is true then Batten is doing quite a good job of getting UKIP back in the political race. He has brought them back for the brink of bankruptcy and stemmed the exodus of its members and if the comments on Youtube are anything to go by he is certainly winning people over. If this move by these three Youtube personalities works out well – or even starts a trend – then it will , at the least , put Anne Marie Waters under a lot of pressure. The road ahead would have been much smoother and promising if Henry Bolton was still fumbling about at the head of UKIP.  Luck , or at least the absence of bad luck is vital.

And if all this was not enough Anne Marie compounded matters when in the run up to the Lewisham East By-election she told a large audience that Stand Up To Racism would not stop her from speaking at the Lewisham East hustings which they then promptly did.

I respect Gerard Batten’s obvious intelligence and ability. He is not the kind of man who makes mistakes but having said that I don’t think he would make a good poker player and right now he is playing that game . The three men he has accepted into his party are not a natural fit for UKIP. They are the sort of men who are best kept at arms length. They are complicated men and it is not an accident that they are in the business that they are in. They are very good at what they do but it is definatly a strange sort of business……..and as we all know , there are a lot of strange people out there.

PS.  No sooner had I finish writing this than I discovered that Sargon of Akkad had just been expelled from UKIP before he had actually joined.  ‘Something to do with the “N” word. PPS. Update. Sargon of Akkad has been accepted into UKIP in spite of the”N” word  as has Milo Yiannopoulos. 26/6/18.

 

 

POPULATION PROJECTIONS: IRISH CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (20 June 2018) released the Population and Labour Force Projections 2017-2051 report. Commenting on the report, James Hegarty Statistician said: “Ireland’s population, which stood at 4.74 million in April 2016, is projected to reach 6.69 million in 2051 (a rise of just under two million persons) if there is high net inward migration and high fertility. Even with low net inward migration and declining fertility, Ireland’s population is still expected to reach 5.58 million in 2051.”
The report presents six population projections under contrasting scenarios for each year from 2017 to 2051 and three labour force projections are presented up to 2031. Mr. Hegarty explained. “The report is not an attempt to predict the future but rather presents how the population could evolve under different scenarios. By making assumptions about future trends in mortality, migration and fertility, we can project the population forward and examine the possible outcomes for demographic groups such as the school-going population, the working-age population and the elderly.”

Primary school-going population (ages 5 – 12) set to decrease from the year 2021 to 2031
The number of primary school-aged children is projected to increase from its 2016 level of 548,100 to between 555,500 and 562,000 by 2021. Thereafter, the number of primary school pupils is expected to fall to between 510,900 and 457,600 by 2031. This represents decreases of between 6.8% and 16.5% on the 2016 figure of 548,100. In 2051, there will be between 453,900 and 607,600 primary school-aged children, depending on the scenario chosen.

Children of secondary school age (13 – 18) set to increase to the year 2026
The secondary school-aged population is projected to increase by between 67,300 and 75,700 persons by 2026 depending on the assumption used, equating to increases of between 18.2% and 20.5% on the 2016 level of 369,900 persons. By 2051, there will be between 330,300 and 439,600 secondary school-aged children.

Substantial rises in the older population
The CSO publication reveals that, irrespective of the combination of assumptions used, there will be between 1.5 and 1.6 million persons aged 65 years and over by 2051, compared with 629,800 in 2016. Therefore, while around 13.3% of the population was aged 65 years and older in 2016, this will rise to between 23.9% and 27.4% in 2051.

The number of persons aged 80 years and over is projected to rise from 147,800 in 2016 to between 535,900 (+262.6%) and 549,000 (+271.4%) in 2051, depending on the scenario chosen.

Labour force growth set to continue
Assuming net inward migration of 10,000 people annually (M3), the labour force is expected to grow from 2,338,600 persons in 2016 to 2,628,700 in 2031, or a rise of 12.4% over the period.
With the more optimistic M2 scenario there is a rise of 397,800 (+17.0%) to a labour force of 2,736,400 persons in 2031 while the most optimistic scenario M1 has a rise of just over half a million (504,300 persons or +21.6%) to 2,842,900. These equate to annual labour force increases of approximately 33,600 under M1, some 26,500 under M2 and 19,300 persons under M3.
Mr. Hegarty concluded: “The CSO are assisted in this work by an Expert Group consisting of representatives of government departments, as well as the universities and other relevant bodies, and we would like to put on record our appreciation for their time on this work”.
Editor’s Note:
The following is a summary of the assumptions underlying the projections:
The high fertility assumption (F1) envisages the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), remaining at the 2016 level of 1.8 for the lifetime of the projections. The low assumption (F2) would see a decline in the TFR from its current level of 1.8 to 1.6 by 2031, remaining constant thereafter.
Life expectancy is assumed to increase from 2015 levels of 79.3 years for males to 85.6 years by 2051. The corresponding figures for females are 83.3 and 88.3 years.
The high migration scenario (M1) assumes annual net immigration of 30,000 over the projection period. Migration scenario (M2) assumes a more modest net inflow of 20,000 per annum to 2051. The third scenario (M3) assumes net inward migration of 10,000 for the entire period.
The labour force participation rates of males will recover to 2006 rates and there will be increases in the labour force participation rates of older males. The labour force participation rates of married and unmarried females will continue to converge while there will also be increases in the labour force participation rates of older females.
For further information contact:
James Hegarty (+353) 21 453 5429 or Caroline Barrett (+353) 21 453 5485
or email demography@cso.ie

Full report is availabe on the official CSO government website.

 

 

WHY A FOR BRITAIN MOVEMENT FORUM

I do not live in the UK and I’m not a British citizen but I have an interest in the For Britain Movement. I cannot involve myself in the day to day happenings of British politics and so I developed this vague idea of writing a blog about what was happening in the UK and the For Britain Movement in particular. It was , and still is , all very vague.

It is a simple personal blog. I intend within a couple of weeks to add a forum where people who have an interest in For Britain and related matters might get to know each other and exchange ideas.

As the great Conor Mcgregor might say , ” It is what it is“.